Does the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Still Exist? Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025

Bitcoin’s code stipulates that the mining reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), continuing until all Bitcoin is mined around the year 2140. This halving rule has formed the basis of Bitcoin’s four-year bull and bear market cycle.

The historical halving events are as follows:

• November 2012: 50 BTC → 25 BTC

• July 2016: 25 BTC → 12.5 BTC

• May 2020: 12.5 BTC → 6.25 BTC

• April 2024: 6.25 BTC → 3.125 BTC

From a technical standpoint, the next halving will occur in 2028. This means the cycle logic remains unchanged.

According to this cycle, after each halving, Bitcoin tends to reach a new all-time high. The duration from the halving date to the new high is typically around 540 days.

• After the November 2012 halving, the increase was 10,752%

• After the July 2016 halving, the increase was 2,263%

• After the May 2020 halving, the increase was 662%

• After the April 2024 halving, the current increase is 81%

The remarkable aspect of this cycle is that the time interval between halving and price peak has been consistently around 540 days for the first three cycles. Therefore, we can reasonably estimate that this cycle's peak might occur around October this year, which is roughly five months away.

Assuming an average price of $65,000, the current post-halving increase is just 81%, and it's likely that the final increase will be much greater. If Bitcoin reaches $150,000, the gain would be 131%—which still seems relatively modest.

Mathematically speaking, the multiplier in each cycle has been decreasing. In the past few cycles, the multipliers were approximately 4.75 and 3.41. This suggests that the increase in this cycle likely won’t exceed 3x. Based on estimates of 2x and 2.5x:

• A 331% increase from $65,000 would reach $215,150

• A 264% increase from $65,000 would reach $171,600

These two numbers represent my rough prediction. I believe the high point of this cycle is most likely to fall within this range.

As for the $150,000 level, the probability of reaching it is relatively high.

All these estimates are based on the assumption that the four-year cycle remains valid. If the cycle changes or fails, these predictions would no longer apply.

Do not take this prediction as investment advice.